OMAHA (DTN) -- A rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton to Category 5 strength has the storm hitting the Tampa Bay region on Wednesday. In this general region there are several phosphorus production facilities, which produce phosphorus fertilizer.

One fertilizer analyst believes this region is going to take a direct hit by the hurricane. This will be bad news for fertilizer prices just weeks before the fall fertilizer application season begins in the Corn Belt.

IMPACT ON FERTILIZER

While Hurricane Helene was more of glancing blow to the Tampa area, Hurricane Milton could be a direct hit to Florida's phosphate fertilizer facilities. Several of the facilities are located just east of Tampa and in the path of this hurricane.

This is really bad news, according to Josh Linville, Stone X vice president of fertilizer. In his media update on Monday morning, he wrote this storm appears to be taking a straight shot at the Florida's phosphorus production.

"This storm is bad ... real bad," Linville wrote.

HURRICANE INTENSIFIED QUICKLY

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said as of 10:55 a.m. CDT Monday, Milton was northwest of the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, making it a Category 5 hurricane.

Baranick said in a recent article that the intensification of this hurricane has been extremely impressive.

"The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tracked the intensification of 80 knots from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours. The NHC records this as the third greatest increase in intensity, being eclipsed only by Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007."

Baranick pointed out the area that will see this most recent hurricane was some of the same areas still attempting to clean up after Hurricane Helene two weeks ago. Helene went through the Big Bend area of Florida on its way north through the southern Appalachians.

STORM POSSIBLE IMPACT ON FERTILIZER PRODUCTION

Linville stated Florida is built to withstand most hurricanes but if this hurricane hits at a Category 4 to 5, there will be some major damage. Even if the phosphorus production facilities can withstand the storm, workers have homes and families to care for. "How much can homesteads withstand and how long will it take for them to clean up and get back on their feet before they can even consider getting back to work?" Linville asked.

This situation would be bad anytime of the year, but it is especially bad about 30 days before the start of fall application season, he stressed.

NOLA DAP is already one of the least expensive DAP values in the world with demand looking better with higher yields and somewhat higher grain prices giving farmers some optimism. Many farmers will apply phosphorus in the days after harvest is completed this fall.

"So, supplies could be hurt, and demand is rising three to four weeks before the start of application," Linville wrote. "I'll let you read between the lines."

To see more by Baranick about Hurricane Milton's forecast track and weather impact, see https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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