OMAHA (DTN) -- While lowering Archer Daniels Midland's outlook for the rest of the year, ADM's president and CEO said on Tuesday that the biggest movers in commodity prices right now will be more clarity on the China trade deal and more details on biofuels policy out of EPA before the end of the year.

ADM cited "trade dynamics," along with "softness in crush margins" for soybeans, as well as lower ethanol margins, as factors that led ADM to lower earnings in the company's quarterly report released on Tuesday.

Among some of the challenges ADM executives cited was a lot of "non-clarity" around policies, especially with the government shutdown.

Juan Luciano, president and CEO of ADM, said on a call with analysts that "marketing opportunities are more difficult right now" as farmers and customers are "very reluctant to book long" in their marketing strategies.

"Farmers are kind of selling reluctantly, and buyers are kind of hand-to-mouth, if you will," Luciano said. "So that doesn't allow for a full orderly flow of the chain, if you will, that we normally see."

That slow selling right now is driven by uncertainty with soybean basis, and because no one knows exactly what will happen with soybean oil since policy decisions remain up in the air.

"At this point in time, the two big events that will move commodity prices will be clarity on the China trade deal and regulatory clarity on biofuels policy," Luciano said.

Luciano repeatedly said more details are needed about what soybean and other commodity sales to China will look like going forward.

"I would say we still need clarity on the trade deal, although on the surface, it is still positive for ADM and for grain in general," Luciano said.

Luciano said there hasn't been a "joint document" highlighting the details on the agreement between the U.S. and China.

"It's a big difference whether the 12 million tons of soybeans will happen in the calendar year or marketing year, of course, and whether that counted the material that is sold versus the material that is shipped, at what prices that will happen; so a lot of that is still in the air."

The White House fact sheet released on Saturday, Nov. 1, stated China would purchase 12 million metric tons (441 million bushels) of soybeans "during the last two months of 2025."

The White House also said China would buy 25 mmt (919 million bushels) each year in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The statement did not get into the weeds of clarifying whether sales would occur in a calendar year or a marketing year. The White House stated China would resume buying U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.

China also would suspend retaliatory tariffs "on a vast swath of U.S. agricultural products: chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products," the White House stated.

On biofuel policies, ADM executives noted a lot of "non-clarity" with biofuel policies that they expect to start falling in line once the federal government reopens.

The ethanol industry is waiting on EPA to finalize its proposal to reallocate biofuel gallons following the agency's decision in August to grant several small-refinery exemptions for the 2023-2025 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). The comment period on that reallocation proposal ended on Friday.

At least one analyst suggested in a question that EPA has been working throughout the shutdown to finalize next year's RVOs. The comment suggested EPA could provide RVO details to the White House Office of Management and Budget sometime in December.

Luciano declined to speculate on what EPA is doing, but said that when the market detects some movement, that would likely push up prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) as well as lead to crush margins "popping up."

"We know that EPA is aligned with the agricultural industry to support American agriculture and energy dominance through strengthening the domestic demand for domestic systems and prioritizing that."

There's also the loss of tax credits for imported renewable diesel and only a 50% RIN for imported feedstocks. Along with that, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act removed the domestic penalty on indirect land use. That will make domestic soybean oil "very competitive" for the 45Z tax credits with other renewable oil products such as tallow or used cooking oil. One analyst suggested that could set a strong domestic market in '26 and '27 for domestic soybean oil crush.

"All of those pieces can be very favorable," Luciano said, but added, "There are many aspects of that that need to be finalized."

Once finalized, RINs would need to climb to allow renewable diesel plants to have the markets to run. "That in line will pull more demand for soybean oil," Luciano said. "That in turn will demand for us to crush more and run our assets harder, which increases crush margins. And then, as demand stabilizes and time goes by, you can see the market coming up into biofuels as well."

He added that the outlook still requires both clarity and timing when it comes down to how some of these government decisions are handled. That affects the optimism going forward.

"We just don't know if it's 12 months of '26 or nine months of '26 with optimism because that depends on the government," Luciano said.

Looking at the third quarter, ADM reported an $845 million operating profit, which is down 19% from the same quarter a year ago. Year to date, the company reports $2.45 billion through three quarters of the year, which is 23% lower than last year as well.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.