On Tuesday, March 31, at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release its 2026 Prospective Plantings report, as well as its quarterly Grain Stocks report, with inventories as of March 1. The releases set the stage for the 2026 planting and early growing state, offering a baseline of what to expect for next year's crop production.

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS

The March Prospective Plantings report always warrants a high degree of market fanfare, acting as the first hint into fundamentals for the upcoming crop year. This time around, the report carries a heightened degree of intrigue given the onset of war in the Middle East in late February, which has brought into question the affordability of fertilizers ahead of planting season. It will also be interesting to see how much faith traders hold in USDA's numbers, given that last year featured the largest increase on record from the March estimate to final corn acreage, which settled as the largest the U.S. has planted since 1936. In terms of accuracy, the last five Prospective Plantings reports have underestimated final corn area by 1.6 million acres (ma), on average, while soybean area has been overestimated by an average of 1.9 ma, including by 2.3 ma last year. Regardless, Tuesday's report has the potential to be a market mover. However, it is important to keep in perspective that nothing on Tuesday is set in stone, and planting and growing season weather will always have the final say.

Through much of the winter, the market consensus has been that acres will shift from corn to soybeans in 2026. The February soybean-to-corn insurance price ratio was 2.4 this year, which suggests a much more "normal" acreage mix as compared to last year's 2.24, which heavily favored corn. The Dow Jones survey of 16 firms resulted in an average estimate of 94.5 ma of corn, down 4.3 ma from 2025 if true. Meanwhile, analysts are expecting soybean area to rise almost one-for-one, to 85.5 ma. Both forecasts would be slightly higher than USDA's February Ag Outlook Forum.

These predictions seem very reasonable to me given the price and profitability potential for each commodity. The wild card, however, will be whether the recent nitrogen-based fertilizer concerns hold weight and influence less corn acres than initially thought. Considering that the acreage survey is conducted in the first two weeks of March, Tuesday's report could prove to be a valuable assessment of producers' outlook regarding fertilizer costs and availability.

As for wheat area, recall that in January, USDA forecast winter wheat seedings last fall at 32.99 ma in the U.S. For Tuesday, the average trade estimate is calling for 32.7 ma, which would be the lowest U.S. winter wheat planted area since 2020 and the sixth lowest since NASS records began in 1909. Analysts also expect to see declines to both spring and durum wheat areas amid a challenging profitability landscape across the wheat sector in general. Total wheat area is expected to fall near 44.6 ma, the second lowest for the U.S. since 1919. In terms of cotton, in February, the National Cotton Council's survey suggested 9 ma would be planted this spring, down from 9.28 ma in 2025. USDA, on the other hand, forecast a slight increase to 9.4 ma in their February outlook. The NCC estimate would be the lowest U.S. cotton area in over a decade, as producers continue to face dwindling domestic demand.

GRAIN STOCKS

Another report due out on Tuesday is a personal favorite of mine, though it tends to be overlooked compared to the planting estimates released simultaneously by USDA. The quarterly Grain Stocks reports serve as the pillars of the USDA balance sheets published each month in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), with individual demand categories tailored to fit the number found in the stocks survey.

For Tuesday, analysts are expecting to find a record amount of corn reserves being held by both farm and non-farm entities, with the Dow Jones survey averaging 9.088 billion bushels (bb) as a guess. This would be 941 million bushels (mb) larger than at the same point in 2025. There is no doubt that corn demand has been stellar through the first half of the marketing year, with the Dow Jones survey implying a disappearance of almost 4.2 bb during the December-through-February window, a record as well if true. Exports have been leading the charge, estimated to have been over 800 mb of shipments during the second quarter. USDA has also been penciling in record feed and residual usage, though I remain somewhat skeptical on that front given fewer feeding cattle and a marginally larger hog herd. However, the residual category is likely doing the heavy lifting and may imply that 2025 corn production was slightly overstated by USDA, in my opinion (though still a record). Time will tell on that.

For soybeans, the average trade guess for March 1 stocks is 2.077 bb, which, if true, would be the largest March 1 reserves since 2020. Export demand continues to lag recent years due to the 2025 trade war with China and the resulting slow start to the marketing year. Second-quarter exports are estimated to have been roughly 540 mb, the lowest since the first trade war from 2018-20. Crush, on the other hand, has continued its record pace, with an estimated 672 mb of soybeans processed through the December-to-March window, an 8.5% increase from the same point in 2025. Seed and residual is a difficult bucket to forecast but tends to be an upward revision in the second quarter, which leads me to believe stocks may come in closer to 2.1 bb, but overall, in line with pre-report analyst expectations outlined by Dow Jones. The implied second-quarter usage (from the Dow Jones survey) would be 1.213 bb of soybeans, the largest in three years, if true.

Lastly, for wheat stocks, remember that the quarter in question as it pertains to the wheat marketing year (June through May) is the third quarter. That being said, analysts expect USDA to find 1.305 bb of wheat on hand in the U.S. as of March 1, a three-year high, if true. Implied wheat disappearance would be 370 mb during the third quarter, also the largest in three years and led by relatively strong exports compared to recent years. I am personally a touch more bullish on wheat demand through the third quarter; hence, my stocks estimate for Tuesday is a bit lower than the Dow Jones survey average, at 1.285 bb.

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, March 31, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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